Champions League quarter-final draw: Predictions, tactics and players to watch

The Champions League quarter-final draw is complete — and there is no shortage of intrigue.

From the winners of the last two seasons (Manchester City and Real Madrid) being paired against each other to Harry Kane returning to north London to face Arsenal, or one-half of the draw opening up for one of the less-fancied teams in the last eight (something unlikely to ever happen again given the format changes from next season), the sub-plots are fascinating.

The Athletic assembled an expert panel to cast their eyes over the four ties to explain where they will be decided, who they are tipping to go through and which team they are expecting to lift the trophy at Wembley on June 1.

---

Arsenal v Bayern Munich

Why should we be excited about this game?

James Horncastle: Bayern ended Arsenal’s relevance in the Champions League in 2017. The 10-2 aggregate win for the Germans showed Arsene Wenger was out of touch and a change was necessary. It has taken a long time but, finally, Arsenal are back.

Raphael Honigstein: Is that a rhetorical question? Thomas Tuchel back in London. Arsenal up against their Champions League bete noire from Bavaria. The return of Serge Gnabry. Two teams who play great football. Oh, and there’s this England player with a Spurs background…

Laia Cervello Herrero: Arsenal are very good in the Premier League but less so in the Champions League for many years and struggled to eliminate Porto. It could be an opportunity for them because they have not been in these stages for a long time, but Bayern have pedigree and are improving.

Thom Harris: The return of Harry Kane is narrative perfection. His Bayern Munich team sit 10 points behind Bayer Leverkusen and are out of the German Cup – the Champions League is the only chance Kane will have to win his first major honour this season.

Dermot Corrigan: Arteta’s team have shown in the Premier League they are a real force, but this is a big test of how much they have progressed from a few years back when they were regularly thumped by Bayern in this competition.

Which player can decide the tie?

Horncastle: Declan Rice. Bayern could use a player like him. The balance he gives this Arsenal team is precisely what’s needed to go far in the Champions League.

Honigstein: Well, Bayern have this England player with a Spurs background… but there’s also Leroy Sane, Jamal Musiala or the evergreen Thomas Muller. For Arsenal, Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka will be key.

Cervello Herrero: Harry Kane is scoring a lot of goals in the Bundesliga but he will want to prove himself in the Champions League and show Bayern are still a force in Europe.

Harris: Kane is the obvious threat, but few players in world football can carry the ball like Musiala. Against a team in Arsenal who defend the spaces in front of their goal so well, he can carve a way through.

Corrigan: Both teams have young playmakers who are already among the very best in Musiala and Odegaard. Odegaard is that bit more mature and playing within a much better structure around him, so he can show his gifts.

What’s your prediction?

Horncastle: Bayern keep buying themselves time to sort themselves out. Ten points behind Leverkusen in the Bundesliga, the Champions League is the only way to save their season. Bayern show up and go through.

Honigstein: Arsenal will score two goals from set pieces to win 2-1 in London (without visiting fans from Munich), but Bayern will come back in the second leg to go through 3-2 on aggregate. Kane with the 75th-minute winner.

Cervello Herrero: Normally, I would say Bayern, but this year the odds are perhaps the most evenly matched. Even so, I am betting on the experience of the Germans.

Harris: This is tough to call; Bayern have not been their ruthless selves this season but still possess real quality in attack. I think Arsenal edge the first leg at home, but let a slender lead slip in Germany.

Corrigan: Assuming Arsenal now believe they belong in this elevated level of the competition, they should really be able to take advantage of all the turmoil and infighting in Bayern’s dressing room and boardroom.

---

Why should we be excited about this game?

Horncastle: Atmosphere-wise, this is probably the tie of the round. Atleti have been compellingly chaotic in the Champions League this season, scoring lots of goals, launching comebacks and fighting to the death. They are faster and looser than other vintages and fast and loose sums up Dortmund, too.

Honigstein: Diego Simeone’s men have moved beyond ‘sufferball’ and are strangely watchable for a change. Dortmund, survivors of the “group of death”, have played all their best games in the Champions League, too. Not the best two sides left in the competition, granted, but two amazing stadiums and a fairly evenly matched tie will be great fun.

Cervello Herrero: At first glance, this tie might seem less attractive, but Dortmund play a lively attacking game and Atletico’s win over Inter Milan, last year’s finalists, was very exciting. Both stadiums also have fans that are very close to the pitch, which always makes matches very heated.

Harris: Both sides have their weaknesses, but both will be going for it. Atletico have been inconsistent, particularly away from home, so will be going all out to flatten Dortmund in the first leg. They have picked up 40 points from a possible 42 at the Metropolitano in La Liga.

Corrigan: The two ‘outsiders’ will see an excellent chance to make the last four. The Metropolitano and Westfalenstadion will be heaving with noise and colour for both games.

Which player can decide the tie?

Horncastle: Antoine Griezmann has been involved in 26 goals in all competitions this season, but Simeone triumphed in the last 16 by going to his bench. Memphis Depay was an unexpected ace up his sleeve, hitting the post, scoring in open play and in the shootout against Inter.

Honigstein: Griezmann, obviously. To see the 32-year-old do his thing against BVB’s creaky defence will be a thing of beauty, but Dortmund can play a bit, too. This will be a great tie for Jadon Sancho to show he’s still got it.

Cervello Herrero: The most decisive player for both teams is Griezmann. He is having a good season and is the one who can tip the balance.

Harris: Greizmann holds the creative keys for Atletico, but Dortmund will be hoping that Julian Brandt can continue to inspire this season. He is well on track to record the most prolific season of his career, while only Leroy Sane and Thomas Muller average a higher expected assists (xAG) rate per game this season in the Bundesliga.

Corrigan: Griezmann is central to everything Atletico do; his invention, work rate and eye for the spectacular also make everyone around him play better.

What’s your prediction?

Horncastle: Atleti leaned heavily on playing the second leg at home against Inter: their record at the Metropolitano is formidable. So if Dortmund can return to Germany unscathed, they have a chance. Saying that, Atleti will progress.

Honigstein: Atleti will win 2-1 at home and eke out a 2-2 draw at Signal Iduna Park. Dortmund will come close to taking the game into extra time in the second leg, but a howler from Nico Schlotterbeck at the back will see the Spaniards advance.

Cervello Herrero: I think Atletico will go through. Dortmund was the easiest opponent in the draw and they are in the easier half of the draw, which should boost their morale.

Harris: If Atletico can take an advantage to Germany, it is hard to bet against them seeing out another hard-fought win.

Corrigan: Neither team is having a fantastic season, but Atletico can harness the energy and exhilaration of their last-16 victory over Inter to propel themselves to the semis.

---

Real Madrid v Manchester City

Why should we be excited about this game?

Horncastle: To see how much Madrid learned from last season when City reserved their best performance of the treble-winning campaign for the Etihad and a statement 4-0 win.

Honigstein: Carlo Ancelotti and his team will be out for revenge. Madrid, without a recognised centre-forward and problems in defence, will be underdogs, but Pep Guardiola’s side are just that little bit more vulnerable than usual this season and both legs come amid a pretty heavy fixture list for the Premier League champions.

Cervello Herrero: This would have been many people’s final. Madrid are always a candidate in the Champions League, but City was the toughest opponent in the draw. To see the best coach in the world, Guardiola, extra motivated by a rival will be a plus. It’s the most attractive match of the draw.

Harris: This is blockbuster. A repeat of semi-final ties in each of the last two competitions, both thrillers, with the small addition of Jude Bellingham. Madrid have lost just twice in 40 games this season — both times to Atletico — and can threaten the defending champions.

Corrigan: The two most recent winners meeting for the third season in a row. City sporting director Txiki Begiristain’s grimace suggested the two teams would have preferred someone else, but for neutrals, it’s a cracker.

Which player can decide the tie?

Horncastle: Toni Kroos is having a magnificent season. If he can get control of the game and activate Bellingham and Madrid’s rapid wide players, maybe they can make this tie look closer than it inevitably will in the future when Kylian Mbappe joins.

Honigstein: City have too many attacking threats to mention, but Madrid must hope that Bellingham can continue his outstanding form and chip in with a goal or two from midfield. He was excellent for Dortmund the last time he rocked up at the Etihad in last year’s group stage.

Cervello Herrero: Erling Haaland. I think it could be his game. They say that the big stages are for the big players and this could be the game that consecrates the Norwegian at the top of the top.

Harris: Vinicius Junior. City have struggled to defend counter-attacks effectively this season — only Crystal Palace have conceded more in the Premier League — and Vinicius Jr has already shown he can rip through this team on the break.

Corrigan: Vinicius Jr is coming into form and his pace and trickery could cause big problems for City’s defence, especially with Madrid sitting deep and hitting on the break, even in the first leg at home.

What’s your prediction?

Horncastle: Let’s see if Madrid get Thibaut Courtois and Eder Militao back. Last season’s 4-0 defeat felt transformative for City and it’s hard to imagine a repeat of 2022 when Madrid scored three times in stoppage time to knock Guardiola’s team out.

Honigstein: Having managed to kill off Madrid last year, City will have the psychological edge over the 14-times winners. Madrid will do everything to still be in the tie for the second leg, but I’m going 3-1 on aggregate for City.

Cervello Herrero: City will win. They beat Madrid last season and this season I think the Spaniards have a worse squad, except for Jude Bellingham.

Harris: City hosting the second leg is significant, as they proved last season with that 4-0 win at the Etihad. Keep it tight at the Bernabeu again and I think they squeeze through at home.

Corrigan: City to progress, especially as the second leg being at the Etihad takes away the possibility of another surreal ‘remontada’ comeback from Madrid at the Bernabeu.

---

Paris Saint-Germain v Barcelona

Why should we be excited about this game?

Horncastle: The ‘remontada’ in 2017 arguably represented a tipping point for Barcelona because PSG then paid Neymar’s buy-out clause and the Catalans proceeded to waste a world-record fee, becoming less and less competitive and solvent.

Honigstein: Serial bottlers PSG have an account to settle with Barca — that 6-1 defeat should provide plenty of motivation to turn up in both legs. There’s also a nice “Luis Enrique goes back to Barcelona” subplot and the prospect of two defensively shaky sides clashing over 180 minutes, minimum. Can’t wait.

Cervello Herrero: It’s a more evenly matched tie than it might seem. It will be interesting to see what approach Luis Enrique, who knows how Barcelona play and how Xavi thinks, will take. It’s also the chance for the Catalans to fix their season and exorcise one of the traumas they have in Europe.

Harris: Seeing the world’s best young players on the biggest stage. Even with Pedri and Gavi ruled out with injury, the likes of Lamine Yamal and Pau Cubarsi — both called up to the most recent Spanish squad — will share a star-studded pitch with Warren Zaire-Emery.

Corrigan: These two teams have built up a tasty rivalry, including the ‘miracle’ Barca comeback in 2017 and PSG taking Neymar from the Camp Nou a few months later. Luis Enrique and Ousmane Dembele going back to the Camp Nou is also spicy.

Which player can decide the tie?

Horncastle: Cubarsi coped brilliantly with Victor Osimhen when his centre-back partner Ronald Araujo needed him to step in. It’ll be fascinating to see how the teenager does against PSG’s attacking talent.

Honigstein: I take it that’s another rhetorical question. Have you heard of Kylian Mbappe? The Madrid-bound French forward can do a useful double here, firing PSG into a semi-final and knocking out Barca, his future arch-rivals, at the same time. Robert Lewandowski will also lick his lips in anticipation, however.

Cervello Herrero: Araujo or Mbappe. Araujo if he manages to subdue the PSG striker Mbappe because if he switches on for just five minutes he can destroy Barca. Araujo has at least proven to have experience of these kinds of battles with Vinicius Jr.

Harris: There’s an obvious answer here: Mbappe can blow any game open with his devastating pace and lethal finishing. His battle with Aruajo and Cubarsi will be fascinating.

Corrigan: Mbappe showed again in the last 16 how his ability can decide big games. Mbappe has eight goals in his previous six matches against La Liga teams, including a hat-trick at the Camp Nou in 2020-21.

What’s your prediction?

Horncastle: Barcelona will have some of their midfielders back, but Luis Enrique, the last coach to win the Champions League in Blaugrana, will take PSG to the semis on Mbappe’s coat-tails.

Honigstein: PSG will do their PSG thing and crumble against an inconsistent but entertaining Barca. The Catalans will get a draw in Paris and seal the deal 2-1 at home, thanks to a late Lewandowski penalty.

Cervello Herrero: I think PSG will go through. They are in better form and although it will be more even than it seems, they will be more consistent. Although Barcelona are so unpredictable it’s hard to imagine what could happen.

Harris: Barcelona have found some form since Xavi’s announcement that he will resign at the end of the season, but they have been shaky defensively at times, shipping three or more goals in a game on seven occasions this season. PSG can take advantage.

Corrigan: Barca lifted themselves to beat Napoli on Tuesday, but even then were not fully impressive. PSG are a more cohesive team, with better individuals (not just Mbappe), and Luis Enrique has more experience and nous than Xavi.

Who is winning the whole thing?

Horncastle: Never write off Real Madrid. It happened repeatedly when Zinedine Zidane led them to three Champions Leagues in a row, but they will need all of their intangibles if they are to stop City.

Honigstein: Manchester City, despite playing a little less perfectly than expected, will be once again too strong for the tougher side of the draw and then wipe the floor with whoever makes it to Wembley from the also-rans.

Cervello Herrero: I will also go for Manchester City. Despite having issues with their squad, I see them as the most consistent project and with enough quality to win the title again.

Harris: Having broken their duck last season, Manchester City have to be the favourites. Real Madrid will not be easy, while Arsenal would be a particularly horrible tie in the semi-finals, but playing away first in both rounds is an advantage.

Corrigan: Manchester City have the extra confidence of being holders and with De Bruyne and Haaland coming back to form and fitness, are still the team to beat.

(Top photos: Martin Odegaard, Vinicius Junior, Kylian Mbappe; by Getty Images)